Future Tropical Storm Helene A Hurricane Danger To Florida, Gulf Coast

 It's been dubbed Invest 97L, a convention used by the National Hurricane Center to identify features they are monitoring for future development.

The NHC also scheduled its first Hurricane Hunter mission to the western Caribbean Sea for this afternoon.

Here is when a storm could form and where it could track:

-​ Monday-Tuesday: The latest computer forecast models suggest a tropical depression or storm could form as soon as late Monday or Tuesday. By late Tuesday, Helene could near Cancún, Cozumel and western Cuba as either a tropical storm or even a Category 1 hurricane. Locally heavy rain and strong wind gusts are possible in those areas.

-​ Wednesday: Helene could have some lingering impacts in Cancún, Cozumel and western Cuba, especially early. We then expect Helene to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico, most likely as a hurricane. Some high surf and outer rainbands could reach parts of Florida's Gulf Coast from the Keys to the Panhandle.

Thursday: While still some uncertainty in the forecast, we expect Helene to make landfall as a hurricane, possibly a strong one, sometime Thursday. While computer forecast models suggest the most likely location for a landfall is somewhere from Florida's Big Bend to the Panhandle, remember that hurricane impacts (surge, winds, rain) often happen far from the center.​ There are still a few computer ensemble model forecasts with tracks as far east as Florida's West Coast and as far west as southeast Louisiana. So, everyone along the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should continue to monitor this forecast for any possible changes ahead.

-​ Friday: This system is most likely to continue inland with weakening winds, but locally flooding rain over parts of the Southeast.

Model Forecast Tracks

(The lines on this graphic represent several of the many track forecasts from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but these are used as guidance for creating the projected path. )

How strong could it become: Helene could become a formidably strong hurricane in the Gulf.

That's because heat content is one favorable ingredient for intensification, and the map below shows there is plenty of deep, warm water in the northwest Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, Gulf of Mexico heat content is at record high levels for this time of year, according to University of Miami tropical scientist Brian McNoldy.

(This map shows areas of not only warm water, but warm, deep water that is one ingredient to fuel developing and active tropical cyclones.)

B​ut it's not just warm water.

Some forecast models suggest upper level winds could spread apart over Helene, which is favorable for strengthening, instead of shearing and tilting Helene's circulation.

F​or those reasons, Helene could reach Category 3 intensity in the eastern Gulf of Mexico before landfall.

R​ainfall potential: While it's too soon for specifics on other impacts - including storm surge and winds - we expect Helene to produce heavy rainfall generally along and to the east of its track.

T​he heaviest rain is expected Thursday into Friday in parts of the Southeast, but some bands of heavy rain could arrive as early as Wednesday. This rain could lead to flash flooding, especially where it combines with storm surge and over higher terrain.

Rainfall Outlook

(While not all of the rainfall shown above is from this tropical system, this should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours.)