The News

Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Election Day 2024 live updates: Harris and Trump face voters

THE LAWYERS November 05, 2024 0

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are facing the moment of truth on Election Day as voters around the country head to the polls.

The race has remained stubbornly deadlocked for weeks, with many pundits acknowledging it’s essentially a jump ball. The Hill and Decision Desk HQ’s polling aggregate finds Harris and Trump tied nationally at 48 percent.

Harris will watch results come in at her alma mater of Howard University in Washington, D.C., while Trump will be at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

Control of the House is also up for grabs, and political observers of all stripes will be watching with anxious anticipation for early signs Tuesday of which party will hold the gavel in the next Congress.

Federal judges denied two states’ requests to bar the Justice Department (DOJ) from dispatching lawyers to monitor adherence to federal voting rights laws on Election Day.

Both Missouri and Texas asked federal courts to keep DOJ lawyers away from their polls. Missouri’s attorney general and secretary of state said any monitoring would “displace state election authorities,” and Texas’s attorney general contended that “Texas law alone determines who can monitor voting in Texas.”

The DOJ announced its intent to send poll monitors to 27 states in a press release Friday, asserting the agency “regularly deploys its staff to monitor for compliance with federal civil rights laws in elections in communities all across the country.” It plans to monitor one city in Missouri — St. Louis — and eight counties in Texas.

Sanders, Bolton predict Trump will claim early victory

Juliann Ventura

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) warned Americans to “be ready” for former President Trump to declare an early victory Tuesday.

When asked in an interview by CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Monday evening what could happen if Trump declares a victory that isn’t his, Sanders issued a warning.

“It’s not ‘what if.’ Kaitlan, it is not ‘what if’ — he will,” the senator said. “Everybody should be aware.”

Former national security adviser John Bolton echoed the sentiment, going a step further.

“I’m predicting between 9 and 10 o’clock he’ll announce that he’s won and hope that the states in the West — Arizona, Nevada, where polls will still be open — might be susceptible to what he has to say,” the former adviser said.

Monday, November 4, 2024

SPresidential Election Preview 2024

THE LAWYERS November 04, 2024 0

Electoral College Ratings

NBC News' Decision Desk characterizes the competitiveness of many of the races to be held in November. Several factors are considered in determining the ratings, including historical electoral results, election polling, analysis of voter registration data and early voting (when applicable), political advertising data, as well as qualitative assessments of the specific candidates.

270 TO WIN

93Toss Up

1Lean DEM

34Likely DEM

191Solid DEM

0Lean GOP

71Likely GOP

148Solid GOP

Click state for full overview

Battleground states

ARIZONA

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

Why it's important

Donald Trump won Arizona in 2016 by nearly 4 percentage points, but lost the state to Joe Biden in 2020 by less than half a percentage point. Polls this year have found Trump and Kamala Harris locked in a statistical tie.

GEORGIA

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

Why it's important

Donald Trump won Georgia in 2016 by about 5 percentage points, but lost there to Joe Biden in 2020 by less than 12,000 votes. The race this year is a toss-up, with Trump and Harris locked in a statistical tie in polls.

MICHIGAN

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

Why it's important

Donald Trump won Michigan in 2016, surprising Democrats in a state Republicans hadn’t won since 1988. Joe Biden won there in 2020 – besting Trump by 3 percentage points. With Kamala Harris and Trump in a statistical tie, it is a “toss-up” headed into Election Day.

NEBRASKA DISTRICT 2

Presidential results, 2008-2020

Percentage point margin

Why it's important

Nebraska awards one Electoral College vote each to its two congressional districts, and the 2nd District has split from the rest of the reliably conservative state. Donald Trump won the district in 2016, but lost it to Joe Biden in 2020. The district is leaning in polls toward the Democrat Kamala Harris this year.

NEVADA

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

Why it's important

Democrats won Nevada in the past two presidential elections — but polling and voting trends in the state have made it an appealing target for Donald Trump in a bid to flip states in his direction. Kamala Harris and Trump are locked in a tie and the state is considered a “toss-up.”

NORTH CAROLINA

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

Why it's important

North Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 2008, but Kamala Harris’ campaign has targeted it as a state she can win, buoyed by its large Black population. Donald Trump won there in 2016 by 3 percentage points and in 2020 by 1 percentage point.

PENNSYLVANIA

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

Why it's important

Pennsylvania is emerging as the most critical battleground state in the 2024 election. Donald Trump won the state by less than 1 percentage point in 2016 and lost it by about 1 percentage point in 2020. Kamala Harris has remained competitive there, and the state is classified as a “toss-up.”

WISCONSIN

Presidential results, 1992-2020

Percentage point margin

Why it's important

Wisconsin is a “toss-up” battleground state that has swung between Democrats and Republicans. Donald Trump won there in 2016 by less than 1 percentage point. Joe Biden won there in 2020, also by less than 1 percentage point.

National Early Voting

76,438,831 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally

41%

39%

20%

Registered Democrats

Registered Republicans

Other

Data not available

66,443,034 mail-in and early in-person votes requested nationally

44%

30%

26%

Registered Democrats

Registered Republicans

Other

Data not available

Past Presidential Election Results

2020 Results

Democrats

Republicans

Electoral College Results, 1992-2020

2020Biden

WINNER

306

232

Trump

2016H. Clinton

227

304

Trump

2012Obama

332

206

Romney

2008Obama

365

173

McCain

2004Kerry

251

286

G.W. Bush

2000Gore

266

271

G.W. Bush

1996B. Clinton

379

159

Dole

1992B. Clinton

370

168

G.H.W. Bush

Vote Margin by State in the 2020 Presidential Election

Circle size represents the number electoral votes in that state.

National
	+4.5 D
Biden	51.3%
Trump	46.8%

The expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. This number is an estimate and is based on several different factors, including information on the number of votes cast early as well as information provided to our vote reporters on Election Day from county election officials. The figure can change as NBC News gathers new information.