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 Wall Street analysts are too bullish on second quarter earnings expectations for most S&P 500 companies. The percentage of S&P 500 companies whose Street EPS exceeds Core EPS equals 75% through 1Q24. Street Earnings refer to Zacks Earnings, which are reported to remove non-recurring items using standardized assumptions from the sell-side.

This report shows:

• the frequency and magnitude of overstated Street Earnings in the S&P 500; and
• five S&P 500 companies likely to miss 2Q24 earnings.

Street EPS Are Higher Than Core EPS for 373 S&P 500 Companies

For 373 companies in the S&P 500, or 75%, Street Earnings are higher than Core Earnings in the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended 1Q24. In the TTM ended 4Q23, Street Earnings were overstated for 370 companies.

The more interesting trend, however, is in the percentage of the S&P 500 where Street Earnings overstate Core Earnings by more than 10%. That number equals 42% (212 companies), which is up from 41% (205 companies) in the TTM ended 4Q23.

Those 212 companies make up 26% of the market cap of the S&P 500 as of 7/8/24, which is up from 25% of the market cap in 4Q23, measured with TTM data in each quarter. See Figure 1.

Figure 1: Overstated Street Earnings by >10% as % of Market Cap: 2012 through 7/8/24

The 373 companies with overstated (by any amount) Street Earnings make up 70% of the market cap of the S&P 500 as of 7/8/24, which is up from 69% in 4Q23, measured with TTM data in each quarter.

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Figure 2: Overstated Street Earnings as % of Market Cap: 2012 through 7/8/24

Note that this analysis is based on my firm’s team analyzing the financial statements and footnotes for ~3,000 10-Ks and 10-Qs filed with the SEC for 1Q24 results.

When Street Earnings are higher than Core Earnings, they are overstated by an average of 19%, per Figure 3.

Figure 3: Street Earnings Overstated by 19% on Average in TTM Through 1Q24

Five S&P 500 Companies Likely to Miss 2Q24 Earnings

Figure 4 shows five S&P 500 companies likely to miss calendar 2Q24 earnings because their Street EPS estimates are overstated. Because investors and analysts tend to anchor their earnings projections to historical results, errors in historical Street EPS lead to errors in Street EPS estimates.

Figure 4: Five S&P 500 Companies Likely to Miss 2Q24 EPS Estimates

*Assumes Street Distortion as a percent of Core EPS is the same for 2Q24 EPS as for TTM ended 1Q24.

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 Only 13 collegiate stars have gone on to take first place in the MLB Home Run Derby since the All-Star weekend event was introduced in 1985. The most recent to do so was Florida product Pete Alonso, who won the 2021 event at Coors Field in Denver with the New York Mets. It was his second consecutive derby win, becoming the first former college baseball player to achieve the feat. Alonso's 2019 crown came at Cleveland's Progressive Field.

 Anna “Nesey” Gallons, a member of the Elephant 6 collective who has performed as a solo artist and with bands such as Circulatory System and the Music Tapes, has accused Julian Koster, a member of Neutral Milk Hotel and leader of bands including the Music Tapes and Orbiting Human Circus, of grooming and sexual assault. In a post on Instagram, Gallons writes that in 2000, when she was 15, she began a phone and email correspondence with Koster in which he told her she was his soulmate. According to Gallons, Koster invited her to visit him in New York, and when she was 16 in April 2001, the relationship became sexual. “This, by all common definitions, constitutes ‘grooming,'” she writes. “Many among our community knew.” She further alleges that Koster sexually assaulted her twice in 2005.

In his own statement on Instagram, Koster confirms the relationship transpired but denies Gallons’ other allegations, writing that Gallons and her spouse have been trying to coerce him into entering into a romantic relationship with them. “I have been the victim of intimidation, manipulation, and abuse by Nesey Gallons for many years,” he writes.

In her statement, Gallons says Neutral Milk Hotel leader Jeff Mangum was aware of the relationship but did not step in to stop it: “Others close to him (actual adults, unlike myself, as I was still 16!) could have also acted on this information then. Why didn’t you, Jeff?” In a follow-up comment on that post, she adds, “I will say that I have a lot of really loving and supportive folks, like the Harts, in the E6 camp. It was an open secret among many while others didn’t really know or weren’t sure what was happening. When things first transpired there was only one person who explicitly asked what was going on and received a direct and truthful answer back in April 2001, and that was Jeff.”

Koster writes that he entered into a sexual relationship with Gallons when she was 16 and he was 28. “Though this put her over Georgia’s legal age of consent when our relationship began, it was wrong to allow the relationship to happen at all and I’ve apologized to Nesey many times for that,” Koster writes. “I should have been more responsible about the age gap, but I deny all the other accusations she’s made.”

Koster writes that he has been subject to “thousands of threatening and manipulative messages” from Gallons and her spouse, Paul Gallons. “In these messages, they’ve demanded that I be in a romantic relationship with them, marry Nesey, move in with them away from my friends and family, finance their living expenses, and let them control me, emotionally, physically, and sexually. They have repeatedly threatened to harm me or themselves if I do not ‘obey’ them.”

Here is the text of Gallons’ original post:

I began to communicate by telephone and correspond via email with Julian Koster routinely in early Y2K at age 15, each exchange gradually becoming more intimate, though seemingly innocent. He imparted the notion that our connection was like none he had ever known. I was Special. (Eventually claiming I must be his true love or soulmate.) He invited me to visit him in New York, had no qualms letting me have cannabis and stare dreamily into his eyes. Less than a year later, in April 2001, about six weeks before I turned 17, that relationship became sexual. This, by all common definitions, constitutes “grooming.” Many among our community knew. In the summer of 2005 he assaulted me twice. I kept this a secret. I remained his closest friend, keeping his secrets throughout those years, even orchestrating things like the 2008 Elephant Six Holiday Surprise tour and long-awaited albums and tours, things the outside world seemed to regard as restoring “relevance” to E6 (mostly because it compelled Mangum to come back on stage 🙄) But though when I melted down catastrophically in late 08 and early 09 he discarded and ostracized me, I didn’t expose Julian, to my own detriment. Such is grooming. I felt compelled to protect my friends in the E6 community and our fans, holding to that until 2020 when the first utterances of this story escaped my shattered lips in any capacity that named names, and was quickly silenced once I was approached with the possibility of reconciliation, and then erased by his eager PR team (prizing their paychecks over humanity and honor, I suppose.) The more recent history is yet another chapter, but allow me to begin with this initial acknowledgement of my story. This is to be continued. It has been making me deeply ill to sit on this pile of secrets kept for *his sake*. For now let it suffice to confirm that I was groomed, assaulted, psychologically and emotionally manipulated by Julian Koster and I could have reported this fact as early as when our relationship was first consummated in April 2001. Others close to him (actual adults, unlike myself, as I was still 16!) could have also acted on this information then. Why didn’t you, Jeff?

 And here’s the follow-up comment:

Additional info on some other occasion, I’ve got shows to play and, like, need some coffee, haha. But I will say that I have a lot of really loving and supportive folks, like the Harts, in the E6 camp. It was an open secret among many while others didn’t really know or weren’t sure what was happening. When things first transpired there was only one person who explicitly asked what was going on and received a direct and truthful answer back in April 2001, and that was Jeff. Thanks to those of you offering warmth, it is appreciated, but the point of this is to find peace and move on. I’m so done with this nonsense, and ready start living

 Gallons has followed up with two more posts since the original accusation. Here’s one:

It’s unsurprising, I suppose, that I should have such trouble sleeping tonight. The show was nice in many ways, I nearly fainted from forgetting to eat all day, but my friends were kind and the audience compassionate as I ate a pouch of dried mangos between songs to stabilize. My friends and the local musicians all made lovely sounds. I finally met a very dear old friend in real life, truly magical, wondrous timing when I needed the company of an army of dear friends, this one appeared like a Good Witch, like the arrival of Gandalf at Helm’s Deep. And yet I can’t sleep. How I wished all this could have transpired differently. How much I gave for so long in hopes another narrative might be possible. I know there are questions, and I appreciate the mostly respectful quiet I’ve received in that regard, but I know there are some with worthy wonderings who aren’t interested in mere spectacle or misery but are desperately in need of whatever peace of mind, clarity, or closure may be gleaned from my words. I am sorry it isn’t as simple as turning out my pockets to reveal what is in them, it will take some time to separate what feels appropriate to share from what ought to remain private. But I understand, as someone deeply emotionally invested in some of these folks, that the lack of complete and thorough information would manifest as a sickening madness in me if I were unable to know everything and assemble a comprehensible narrative. It is particularly distressing, and I am sure also somewhat confusing, as a lengthy reconciliation had seemingly been underway since I first uttered anything of this in 2020. I will elaborate in what ways are appropriate to the best of my ability as time and my nervous system are able to handle it. I feel a measure of relief at telling these truths, but it is also upsetting to me to leave stories unfinished, and to not know what to expect next. In the meantime I appreciate all the support. Privately, yes, but especially visibly. Every kind word shared publicly is like a little shield that helps protect my family and I from those who would rather see me attacked and harmed for saying what I have said.

 And here’s another:

cw: all the things. I’m predictably receiving a bunch of new followers under kinda lousy circumstances to receive a bunch of new followers, sorry, I wish it were because of something fun! But here are a few basic facts about me: I’m a 40 year old trans woman, married to a trans man. I’m on hrt but don’t really pass and don’t care if I ever do. My partner and I have two kids. I’m an anarchist, omnisexual, and practice ethical non-monogamy very selectively. I share this, among other things, for safety reasons, as the ways our family is Different—without context—are sometimes interpreted in bad faith as immorality and dissolution. Like any Q/ND person, I cannot hope to protect against such willful misunderstanding, so my hope is that sharing what I am sharing will protect against this by connecting with those who either share these differences or can see them as valid, loving, and deserving of the same basic regard for one’s humanity as anyone else.

I am not a “perfect victim” either. I am neurodivergent and suffer from ptsd and bipolar disorder. I have a history of alcoholism. It’s how I coped with keeping these secrets. I also experienced childhood sexual abuse. I have hurt people in my own ways as a result of these traumas and this secrecy, and that is part of what motivates my own healing, to become a safer and better human, to learn and act in ways that reduce harm. I believe in radical forgiveness and while personal accountability is important, we need to focus on the ways the neurodivergent and queer community (particularly older generations) have been deprived of sufficient sex education and crushed by capitalism. Those are our real enemies that cause this kind of suffering among us. I’m typically a relatively private person, but I’m honest and don’t have much of a filter anymore. I’ll engage when I have the mental energy and block folks who can’t communicate respectfully pretty much immediately without a warning. Best wishes to all who mean well

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 Dr. Ruth Westheimer, the diminutive sex therapist who became a pop icon, media star and best-selling author through her frank talk about once-taboo bedroom topics, has died. She was 96.

Westheimer died on Friday at her home in New York City, surrounded by her family, according to publicist and friend Pierre Lehu.

Westheimer never advocated risky sexual behavior. Instead, she encouraged an open dialogue on previously closeted issues that affected her audience of millions. Her one recurring theme was there was nothing to be ashamed of.

I still hold old-fashioned values and I'm a bit of a square,” she told students at Michigan City High School in 2002. “Sex is a private art and a private matter. But still, it is a subject we must talk about.”

Westheimer's giggly, German-accented voice, coupled with her 4-foot-7 frame, made her an unlikely looking — and sounding — outlet for “sexual literacy.” The contradiction was one of the keys to her success.

But it was her extensive knowledge and training, coupled with her humorous, nonjudgmental manner, that catapulted her local radio program, "Sexually Speaking," into the national spotlight in the early 1980s. She had a nonjudgmental approach to what two consenting adults did in the privacy of their home.

“Tell him you’re not going to initiate,” she told a concerned caller in June 1982. “Tell him that Dr. Westheimer said that you’re not going to die if he doesn’t have sex for one week.”

Her radio success opened new doors, and in 1983 she wrote the first of more than 40 books: “Dr. Ruth’s Guide to Good Sex,” demystifying sex with both rationality and humor. There was even a board game, Dr. Ruth’s Game of Good

She soon became a regular on the late-night television talk-show circuit, bringing her personality to the national stage. Her rise coincided with the early days of the AIDS epidemic, when frank sexual talk became a necessity.

“If we could bring about talking about sexual activity the way we talk about diet — the way we talk about food — without it having this kind of connotation that there’s something not right about it, then we would be a step further. But we have to do it with good taste,” she told Johnny Carson in 1982.

SOURCE 

 Shelley Duvall, the big-eyed, waifish performer who won the Cannes actress award for Robert Altman‘s “3 Women” and endured Stanley Kubrick’s intense directing techniques to star in “The Shining,” died of diabetes complications on Thursday in Blanco, Texas, Variety confirmed with her partner Dan Gilroy. She was 75.

“My dear, sweet, wonderful life, partner, and friend left us last night. Too much suffering lately, now she’s free. Fly away beautiful Shelley,” said Gilroy in a statement.

Duvall was known for working with director Altman, who cast her in “Brewster McCloud” as her first screen role. She went on to appear in his films “McCabe & Mrs. Miller” and “Thieves Like Us” before starring as part of the ensemble cast of “Nashville” in 1975. After gaining attention in “Nashville,” Altman cast her in “Buffalo Bill and the Indians,” then gave her unusual screen presence a chance to shine in “3 Women,” for which she won the Cannes Film Festival Award for Best Actress as well as a BAFTA nomination.

Also in 1977, Duvall played a Rolling Stone journalist in Woody Allen’s “Annie Hall,” and met Paul Simon on the set. They dated for two years.

Duvall starred as Olive Oyl in Altman’s “Popeye” in 1980, a role that she seemed born to play, with her giant eyes. Her unnerving performance as a health spa worker in “3 Women” led Kubrick to cast her as Wendy Torrance, the wife of Jack Nicholson’s character in Stanley Kubrick’s “The Shining,” based on the Stephen King novel.

The Shining” required more than a year of shooting, and throughout, the legendarily demanding director pushed Duvall to her limit. Some of her scenes in “The Shining” required more than 100 takes.

Years later, she talked about the difficult shoot with the Hollywood Reporter. “After a while, your body rebels. It says: ‘Stop doing this to me. I don’t want to cry every day.’ And sometimes just that thought alone would make me cry. To wake up on a Monday morning, so early, and realize that you had to cry all day because it was scheduled — I would just start crying. I’d be like, ‘Oh no, I can’t, I can’t.’ And yet I did it. I don’t know how I did it. Jack said that to me, too. He said, ‘I don’t know how you do it.’“

Among her other roles were Terry Gilliam’s “Time Bandits” and the comedy “Roxanne” with Steve Martin.

Source 

 Anthony Mackie is adjusting to a new world order. The actor stars as Sam Wilson in Captain America: Brave New World, the Marvel Studios film that is described as a grounded political thriller that hearkens back to the 2014 feature Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

Harrison Ford makes his Marvel debut as General Ross, the role previously played in the MCU by the late William Hurt, who wants to bring Captain America aboard in an official military position after being elected president. Wilson seemingly works to uncover a nefarious global plot – and eagle-eyed fans will spot the brief glimpse of Ford, as the Red Hulk, head-to-head with Cap.

The entire WNBA slate on Wednesday, June 10, is a matinee, and rookies should demand attention in front of crowds filled with youth camp attendees. Backing a couple of rookies will lead our free WNBA picks.

Let’s look through the Liberty vs. Sun, the Dream vs. Sky, and the Mystics vs. Fever.

WNBA player prop bets for July 10

• Jonquel Jones Over 9.5 rebounds (-108 at FanDuel)
• Caitlin Clark Over 8.5 assists (+110 at DraftKings)
• Angel Reese double-double (-280 at FanDuel)

Picks made on 7-9 at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Wednesday's best WNBA player props bets

 The reality-show panelist and cutting-edge fashionista posted the news on TikTok, stitched to a clip of user Em Grace (@emgwaciedawgie), who said, “I love when I see a lesbian with their boyfriend. It’s like, aww, you hate that man.”

Hey. That was me. I was that lesbian,” Fox said in her reply, shooting the video as she walked down a sunny street. “Sorry boys, won’t happen again.”

Representatives for the “Uncut Gems” actor did not respond immediately Tuesday to a request for confirmation. But Fox had pointed toward the future of her sexuality in an interview last year.

“I think I’m just so afraid to open that can of worms, because I know that once I do, that’s it,” Fox told The Times in September, about the decision to get into relationships with women instead of men. “There’s no coming back from it, and I know that I’ll just be a lesbian. It will happen, eventually. I’m just prolonging it, personally, because I’m afraid.”

She also wrote in her memoir about her feelings for a best friend, Gianna.

If I were to have been open with my sexuality, I would’ve been with Gianna,” Fox told The Times. “We were low-key in love. There were times when we would do sexual things, and then never talk about it.”

The feelings apparently ran deep, prompting her to add, “If I could bring her back to life, I would trade everything apart from my son. Every dollar in my bank account, every achievement, every other person in my life. She died, and I was never the same again.”

Of course, outside of her NYC club reputation and her acting and “OMG Fashun” careers, Fox is well known for her brief, allegedly sexless stint on the arm of rapper Ye, formerly known as Kanye West.

The two hit the scene together for a couple of weeks in early 2021, traveling to Miami, New York City and L.A. and leaving heads spinning among those who follow such things.

Since then, Fox had sworn off men — both in relationships and in general — telling Elle last year that her attitude was, “Like, don’t talk to me, don’t look at me, don’t bother me.”

She went on: “I feel like knowingly engaging in a heterosexual relationship, you are signing yourself up for an unhealthy dynamic.”

SOURCE 

 A version of this article first appeared in the “Reliable Sources” newsletter. Sign up for the daily digest chronicling the evolving media landscape here.

George Stephanopoulos, sporting a T-shirt, shorts, and over-the-ear headphones, was traversing the New York City streets by foot on Tuesday when he was approached by a stranger who asked for his thoughts on President Joe Biden’s fitness for office.

“I don’t think he can serve four more years,” candidly replied the ABC News anchor, who had just sat down with Biden a few days earlier for his first on-camera television interview following the CNN presidential debate.

The blunt remark from Stephanopoulos — video of which made its way to TMZ — served as the latest example of the news media turning on Biden, expressing strong concerns about whether he has the fortitude to defeat Donald Trump in November and then serve an additional term in office.

On Tuesday night, Stephanopoulos expressed regret for his frank remark, saying through a spokesperson, “Earlier today I responded to a question from a passerby. I shouldn’t have.” (Notably, Stephanopoulos did not withdraw the viewpoint he articulated, but simply said he shouldn’t have expressed it.) ABC News separately said that Stephanopoulos “expressed his own point of view and not the position of ABC News.” Regardless, any damage inflicted by the comment was already done.

It goes without saying that Stephanopoulos is far from alone amongst his peers in the news media in sharing that opinion. Whether fair or unfair (and I do believe you can argue some of the coverage over the past two weeks has been over the top and irresponsible), the reality is that Biden has, at this juncture, lost much of the press corps. Many journalists simply do not buy the narrative that Biden, his campaign, and the White House are selling.

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